Deportivo Alaves

Deportivo Alaves

1-2
Friday, March 13, 2026
20:00
Medium Confidence
Villarreal

Villarreal

Spain. La Liga

AI Prediction

Predicted Winner
Villarreal Win
44%

Head-to-Head Statistics

Deportivo Alaves
2 wins
Draws
2 draws
Villarreal
2 wins
Total Matches:6
Avg Goals/Game:2.5
H2H Last 5:
WWWDD
Deportivo Alaves Last 5:
LLDDL
Villarreal Last 5:
LWWLW
Last Meeting
2026-01-10
3-1
home_win

AI Analysis

Summary
This La Liga encounter sees a struggling Deportivo Alaves host a Villarreal side with European aspirations. Alaves are in a dire run of form and will be desperate to pick up points to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle. Villarreal, on the other hand, will see this as a must-win game to keep pace with the teams above them. Despite some key injuries, Villarreal's superior quality should see them through in a competitive match where both teams are likely to find the net.
Reasoning
Deportivo Alaves's primary concern will be their lack of recent wins and their struggles in front of goal. Their home advantage at Mendizorrotza will be a crucial factor if they are to take anything from this game. However, they face a Villarreal team that, despite some inconsistencies, possesses a significant attacking threat. The head-to-head record shows a relatively even split in recent meetings, but Villarreal's current league position and overall squad strength make them the favorites. The betting odds reflect this, with Villarreal priced as the likely winners. Alaves will need to produce a disciplined and resilient defensive performance while hoping to capitalize on any set-piece opportunities or counter-attacks. For Villarreal, the key will be to control the tempo of the game and to be clinical in the final third. The potential absence of Gerard Moreno is a blow, but they have other attacking options who can step up. We anticipate an open game, with both teams having opportunities to score, but ultimately, Villarreal's quality should be the deciding factor.
Detailed Analysis
Deportivo Alaves's primary concern will be their lack of recent wins and their struggles in front of goal. Their home advantage at Mendizorrotza will be a crucial factor if they are to take anything from this game. However, they face a Villarreal team that, despite some inconsistencies, possesses a significant attacking threat. The head-to-head record shows a relatively even split in recent meetings, but Villarreal's current league position and overall squad strength make them the favorites. The betting odds reflect this, with Villarreal priced as the likely winners. Alaves will need to produce a disciplined and resilient defensive performance while hoping to capitalize on any set-piece opportunities or counter-attacks. For Villarreal, the key will be to control the tempo of the game and to be clinical in the final third. The potential absence of Gerard Moreno is a blow, but they have other attacking options who can step up. We anticipate an open game, with both teams having opportunities to score, but ultimately, Villarreal's quality should be the deciding factor.
Deportivo Alaves

Overview: Deportivo Alaves comes into this match in poor form, winless in their last five league matches (LLDDL). They currently sit in the lower half of the La Liga table and have struggled for goals, while also being defensively vulnerable. Their home form has been average, which they will need to rely on to get a result against a stronger opponent.

Tactical Notes: Alaves is likely to set up in a defensive 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 formation, aiming to frustrate Villarreal and hit them on the counter-attack. They will need to be disciplined at the back and clinical with any chances they create, as they are expected to have less possession. Their success will likely depend on the midfield's ability to disrupt Villarreal's rhythm and the forwards' ability to convert limited opportunities.

Key Players: Luis Rioja, Giuliano Simeone, Antonio Sivera

Villarreal

Overview: Villarreal's recent form has been inconsistent, with a mix of wins and losses (LWWLW). They currently occupy a much higher position in the league table compared to Alaves and possess greater attacking firepower. However, they have shown some defensive frailties, particularly in away matches. The potential absence of key forward Gerard Moreno could impact their attacking threat.

Tactical Notes: Villarreal is expected to dominate possession and play an attacking 4-3-3 formation. They will look to control the midfield through the likes of Dani Parejo and create chances for their forwards. Their full-backs will likely push forward to provide width and attacking support. The key for Villarreal will be to break down Alaves's low block and to remain solid defensively against counter-attacks.

Key Players: Alexander Sørloth, Álex Baena, Dani Parejo

Betting Insights
Value Bets:
  • Villarreal to win at odds of 2.257, given their superior quality and Alaves's poor form.
  • Both teams to score (Yes) at 1.77 seems a solid choice as Villarreal's defense can be leaky, and Alaves will be desperate to score at home.
Risky Bets:
  • A correct score of 1-2 to Villarreal. While plausible, correct score predictions are inherently difficult to get right.
  • Deportivo Alaves to win. Given their recent struggles and Villarreal's overall strength, a home win would be an upset.